UK Energy Market Movements – October 2025

18/11/25

October 2025 was a relatively calm month for the UK energy markets, with gas prices showing limited directional movement but moderate day-to-day volatility. Across the 23 trading days, the average daily change in UK gas market prices was slightly negative at ?0.1%. The largest upward move occurred on 6 October (+1.97%), while the steepest decline was on 31 October (-1.88%). These fluctuations were not part of a broader trend but rather isolated responses to short-term factors. Overall, the market remained range-bound, with traders largely focused on balancing short-term fundamentals rather than reacting to major structural shifts.

Supply Factors

Supply conditions were broadly supportive throughout October. European gas storage levels remained high, averaging around 83%, which helped ease concerns about winter supply risks. This strong storage position acted as a stabilising force, reducing the likelihood of sharp price spikes. UK domestic supply was steady, with no major outages or disruptions reported. LNG imports into Europe continued at a healthy pace, and Norwegian pipeline flows were consistent, with no significant maintenance events affecting volumes. These factors combined to create a well-supplied market environment, which helped keep gas prices contained despite occasional weather-driven demand fluctuations. The absence of supply shocks meant that traders were more focused on short-term balancing rather than risk premiums.

Demand Factors

Demand-side dynamics were relatively subdued during October. Temperatures remained within seasonal norms, and there were no major cold spells that would have triggered a surge in heating demand. Power demand was stable, with no significant spikes in industrial or residential consumption. This lack of strong demand signals contributed to the overall calm in the market, as prices were not pushed higher by usage pressures. Additionally, the mild weather outlook for early winter helped temper expectations for near-term demand growth. With both gas and power demand tracking close to seasonal averages, the market remained focused on supply-side developments and broader European fundamentals.

Geopolitical Factors

In the Middle East, a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas was brokered with direct involvement from U.S. President Donald Trump, easing regional tensions. Elsewhere, Russian missile strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure persisted, keeping regional tensions elevated and Ukraine’s damaged domestic production has led to increased imports from the EU. US and EU sanctions on Russian gas and oil remained in place, reinforcing reliance on LNG and storage. Overall, geopolitical influences on the UK energy market were limited during October, with no material effects on gas and LNG flows into Europe.

Power & Renewable Generation Factors

The UK’s power generation mix in October was dominated by wind and CCGT. Wind contributed an average of 34% to the electricity supply, while CCGT accounted for approximately 29%. Large swings between both meant that the generations mix varied day-to-day, with wind output fluctuating significantly depending on weather conditions. Additionally, imports made up 14%, nuclear 10%, biomass 6%, with solar, hydro and storage contributing marginal shares. A diverse power generation mix primarily reflected concerns with operational balancing and weather variability, rather than acting as direct price drivers. The UK’s Emissions Trading Scheme (UKETS) price settled after a bullish summer period, lowering slightly to £56/tonne by the month close.